The E-com Logistics Weekly • March 26

Welcome to this week’s edition of E-com Logistics Weekly. If you feel like the ground is constantly shifting underneath your feet, you aren’t alone.

This week, we are looking at the whiplash of AI commerce strategies, a historic and desperate move by the USPS to stay afloat amid the Iran war, and a highly suspicious wave of Fortune 500 CEOs stepping down right as recession fears mount. Plus, the tariff wars are getting messier, complete with international retaliation and a surge of domestic scams.

Let’s dive in.

Agentic or Bust (Or Just a Race to the Bottom?)

If you followed the news out of Shoptalk 2026 this week, the undeniable buzzword of the event was “Agentic Commerce”, basically the idea that autonomous AI agents will soon do the shopping for us. According to CMSWire, the mandate from the conference was simple: “(…) retail leaders are making one thing clear: test now, build fast and don’t lose the human element.” But as any operator knows, that is much easier said than done. Behind the scenes, the reality of this technological transition is incredibly messy.

Just last month, OpenAI signaled they were scaling back their integrated commerce plans. Now? Less than a month later, they have completely reversed course, announcing they are back to powering product discovery and sales directly inside ChatGPT. It genuinely makes you wonder if OpenAI’s product roadmap is just a market strategy designed to keep investors happy and keep the broader AI bubble afloat. For operators on the ground, watching these tech giants change their core strategies as often as the rest of us change our underpants might be a slight exaggeration, but it is genuinely getting exhausting.

One major reason for OpenAI’s sudden pivot might be Shopify. Despite previously indicating they wouldn’t let AI bypass their traditional checkout, Shopify is now heavily pushing its new Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP). They have actively partnered with Google and Microsoft to allow seamless, instant checkout directly inside AI chat interfaces.

But here is the million-dollar question for e-com operators: Does any of this actually work for human buyers? The hard data, allegedly, says no. As reported by Search Engine Land, Walmart’s highly anticipated ChatGPT checkout integration was a total flop. Daniel Danker, Walmart’s EVP of Product, confirmed that ChatGPT converted at one-third the rate of their traditional website. He called the AI shopping experience “unsatisfying” and confirmed Walmart is already moving away from it.

If this AI-agent future does materialize, it could present a terrifying scenario for independent brands. If AI bots are doing the shopping and bypassing your website entirely, your brand storytelling, UX, and marketing are rendered useless. The AI will simply scan for the lowest price, potentially, turning e-commerce into an absolute race to the bottom. Time will tell if this is just another Silicon Valley hype train, but the Walmart data suggests consumers aren’t ready to let a chatbot buy their groceries just yet.

TikTok Wants the Whole Funnel

While AI struggles with conversion, TikTok is doubling down on keeping users in its ecosystem. Social Media Today reported that TikTok For Business just launched a massive new campaign: “Watch It. Love It. Want It.” The goal is explicit: drive in-app shopping. TikTok wants to own the entire funnel, from the initial dopamine hit of product discovery straight through to the transaction, ensuring the buyer never has to leave the app or visit your external storefront.

The USPS Surcharge Band-Aid

The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has officially hit domestic parcel delivery. The USPS just announced it will impose its first-ever fuel surcharge on packages, adding an 8% fee starting this month to offset the massive 30%+ spike in gasoline costs caused by the US-Iran conflict. The political backlash was immediate. Rep. Gabe Vasquez publicly condemned the decision, arguing that the USPS is unfairly passing the financial burden of an overseas war directly onto the backs of American consumers and small businesses.

But if we look at the broader picture, this surcharge might not just be about fuel, it’s about survival. As we reported last week, Postmaster General David Steiner warned Congress that the USPS will be completely out of cash in less than 12 months. Is an 8% fuel surcharge going to prevent that death spiral, especially when Amazon is actively slashing the volume they send through the postal service? Realistically, no. It is a band-aid on a bullet wound.

The question now is whether legacy carriers will follow suit with emergency war surcharges, or if Ecom businesses and 3PLs will start pushing volume to alternative networks. CNBC notes that FedEx is currently expanding its same-day delivery capabilities via OneRail, signaling that the private sector is continuing to optimize while the public sector bleeds out.

Macro: Q1 Turmoil and the “AI” CEO Exodus

We just closed the books on a highly tumultuous Q1. While last week we highlighted the very real fears of the “AI Bubble” bursting, USA Today released a sobering news report this week warning that a severe US recession might be even closer than expected, and it is being driven by traditional economic indicators, not just tech overvaluations.

The most fascinating signal of this impending downturn is happening in the C-suite. Two of the most powerful executives in the world, James Quincey of Coca-Cola and Doug McMillon of Walmart, both stepped down as CEO this year. According to CNBC, both leaders specifically cited “Artificial Intelligence” as a key factor, claiming they need fresh leadership to guide their companies through the new AI era.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, can we truly take them at their word, or should we be reading between the lines? Are the CEOs of soda and grocery empires really stepping down because they don’t understand AI? Or are they looking at skyrocketing geopolitical supply chain costs, shrinking consumer wallets, and a potential impending recession, deciding to cash out at the top of the market while using “AI” as a convenient PR excuse? We’ll let you be the judge.

Trade & Tariffs: Scams, Retaliation, and Stalled Frontlines

You thought we were done talking about tariffs? Hah! Think again! The tariff landscape continues to be an absolute minefield this week. The $166 billion IEEPA tariff refund mandate has created so much operational chaos that bad actors are now exploiting it. According to syndicated financial reports, there is a massive surge in fake tariff refund text messages targeting businesses, attempting to phish financial data under the guise of government payouts.

But the real story of the week is the escalating geopolitical fallout. China has officially fired back, launching two massive, retaliatory trade-barrier investigations into US practices. If you think this is just standard diplomatic posturing, look at what Beijing is actually targeting: China’s Commerce Ministry is specifically probing US restrictions on advanced technology exports and the heavy barriers Washington has placed on Chinese green energy products (like EV batteries and solar panels). This is a highly calculated warning shot. As Wendy Cutler, a former acting U.S. trade official, explained, this move is all about leverage: “They’re trying to send a signal to the US: don’t impose tariffs on us as a result of these investigations because our gun is loaded and we’re ready to retaliate.” By building this legal framework now, Beijing is positioning itself to instantly slap reciprocal tariffs or devastating export bans on US industries the exact moment Washington finalizes its new Section 301 duties. It guarantees this tariff war is about to become a grueling, highly targeted two-front battle.

Back in Washington, the pressure is further mounting. The courts have recently expanded the scope of allowable tariff refunds, and two US Senators have formally called for an overhaul of the current tariff structure, echoing the frustrations of industries that have been crushed by these duties.

That’s all for this week! It’s a little shorter than usual, but we at Hermeslines are working on some big things behind the scenes that we hope to share with you soon. Until then, stay nimble. See you all next week!

Note: This information is intended to inform Hermeslines clients and partners about industry developments, including but not limited to decisions of courts and administrative bodies. Nothing in this update should be construed as legal advice, a legal opinion, or customs consulting. Readers should not act upon the information contained in this alert without seeking the advice of a licensed customs broker or legal counsel. Views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of Hermeslines or its clients. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome. Hermeslines does not claim ownership of the original reporting; please refer to the linked sources for full articles and original attribution. This content is intended for commentary, news reporting, and educational purposes under the Fair Use provisions of Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976. This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute legal or customs advice.