Hermeslines
The E-com Logistics Weekly • March 5 – March 12, 2026

The E-com Logistics Weekly • March 5 – March 12, 2026

/

Welcome to this week’s edition of E-com Logistics Weekly! We are dedicating a massive portion of today’s newsletter to the most chaotic, high-stakes trade policy story of the decade. The aftermath of the Supreme Court striking down the IEEPA tariffs has triggered a $166 billion logistical nightmare, and the replacement tariffs are already under fire.

If you import goods into the US, grab a coffee. You need to read this.

Let’s dive in.

The $166 Billion Tariff Refund Mess & The Section 122 War

Last week, we told you that claiming a refund for the now-illegal IEEPA tariffs would be a bureaucratic gauntlet. Well, the courts just stepped in, and the situation has escalated from a legal mess into a full-blown operational crisis for the US government.

Here is what has happened so far, and what it might mean for your bottom line.

1. The “Universal Refund” Order

On March 4, 2026, Judge Richard Eaton of the US Court of International Trade (CIT) dropped a bombshell in the case of Atmus Filtration v. United States.

Judge Eaton ordered CBP to refund the illegally collected IEEPA tariffs to ALL IMPORTERS, not just the massive corporations that had active lawsuits. His reasoning was straightforward: since the Supreme Court declared the tariffs entirely unlawful, the money was collected illegally and must be returned across the board to ensure “uniformity.”

And with the sheer magnitude of this ruling, the US government is now on the hook to refund an estimate of roughly $166 billion in duties, spread across more than 53 million customs entries. The law firm Fox Rothschild wrote that: “In the meantime, importers should not sit still. If you have not yet completed the electronic refund setup process required under CBP’s Interim Final Rule, do so now — refund payments will be rejected without it. And keep a close eye on the Atmus Filtration docket. This case is moving fast, and the next development could come at any time.”

2. CBP’s 4.4 Million Labor Hour Panic

There is just one problem: the government literally does not have the manpower to give you your money back.

In a sworn declaration filed on March 6, Brandon Lord, the Executive Director of CBP’s Trade Programs Directorate, spelled out the operational nightmare. Lord testified that processing these refunds manually would take roughly five minutes per entry.

  • The Math: 53 million entries at 5 minutes each equals roughly 4.4 million labor hours.
  • The Shutdown Risk: Lord warned the court that attempting this manual process would effectively paralyze the agency, completely destroying CBP’s ability to handle current, day-to-day trade operations.
  • The 45-Day Pause: Facing a systemic collapse of US customs processing, Judge Eaton issued a stay, giving CBP roughly 45 days to build an automated “bulk refund” system within the ACE (Automated Commercial Environment) portal. So do not expect a check in the mail tomorrow.

The Bottom Line: The government has the money, but they won’t come looking for you. If you have been importing goods into the U.S and your ACE portal account is not “Refund Ready”—meaning your ACH (Electronic Refund) setup and Form 5106 are not current—the automated system will likely skip your entries. Don’t leave your share of that $166 billion on the table.

3. The 24-State Lawsuit Against the New Tariffs

While the government scrambles to refund the old tariffs, a massive legal war has already broken out over the new ones. On March 5, a coalition of 24 states (led by Oregon, Arizona, California and New York.) filed a federal lawsuit to block the Trump administration’s replacement tariffs, which were enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

  • The Argument: The states are arguing that Section 122 was written specifically for 1970s-style “balance-of-payment” crises (back when the US dollar was linked to the gold standard, which it isn’t anymore). They argue it cannot be legally used as a blunt instrument to fix modern, general trade deficits.
  • The Ultimate Legal Irony: The states are actually using the Trump DOJ’s own words against them. In 2025, during the original IEEPA litigation, the Trump Justice Department explicitly argued that Section 122 did not apply to broad trade deficits because they are “conceptually distinct” from balance-of-payment issues. Now, the states are weaponizing that exact 2025 DOJ quote to tear down the 2026 Section 122 tariffs.

4. The Reality Check: Don’t Count on a Second Victory

Despite the irony, e-commerce sellers should not assume these new Section 122 tariffs will be struck down as easily as the IEEPA ones. Trade experts such as Peter Harrell, warn that Section 122 sits on much stronger legal footing. Unlike IEEPA (which was a broad “emergency” power that didn’t explicitly mention tariffs), Section 122 explicitly gives the President the statutory power to impose a “temporary import surcharge” of up to 15%. Because it is a specific trade statute, courts are highly likely to grant the President much more deference.

5. Are You Impacted? Recommended Next Steps

If your business has imported goods into the U.S. over the last 12 months, or plans to in the coming quarter, we recommend the following actions:

  • Verify ACE Portal Readiness: If you have paid IEEPA duties, confirm your account is set up for ACH Refunds. As of February 6, 2026, the U.S. Treasury has moved to a “Digital Only” payment model. Without an active ACH setup in the ACE portal, your share of the $166B refund cannot be processed.
  • Audit IEEPA Entries: Work with your compliance team or broker to flag all entries between February 2025 and February 2026 where IEEPA duties were paid. Having this list ready now will speed up your filing once the 45-day system build is complete.
  • Update Your Q2/Q3 Forecasts: The new 10% Section 122 surcharge is live and currently slated to run through July 23, 2026 (might be even longer). We recommend maintaining these figures in your landed cost forecasts until the 24-state legal challenge reaches a verdict.

The AI Checkout Reality Check

We’ve seen a lot of noise lately regarding AI automatically buying goods for you, without you ever having to actually access a retailer’s platform. Well, we just got a massive reality check, giving further questions to the whole “AI shopping agent” bubble.

  • OpenAI Scales Back: OpenAI has officially scaled back its ambitious instant checkout plans (“Buy it in ChatGPT”). This is a significant setback for the idea of fully frictionless, off-site AI purchasing.
  • Amazon Blocks Perplexity: Amazon just won a court order to block Perplexity’s AI shopping agent from scraping and purchasing on its platform.
  • Why this matters: Last week, we mentioned that Shopify isn’t letting AI bypass its checkout. With Amazon and Shopify now accounting for a staggering 50% of all US e-commerce, the stakes are high. If these two titans refuse to let third-party AI agents process transactions off-site, the dream of an independent AI buying agent is essentially dead in the water.
  • But It’s Not the End: Big tech isn’t killing AI shopping; they just want to own it. Meta is reportedly readying its own new AI shopping tool to compete directly in the space, and Amazon is exploring enabling third-party chatbot ad sales.

Global Retail & E-Commerce Trends

  • Walmart’s “Free Sample” Play: Walmart Marketplace has introduced a program allowing sellers to give away free product samples to “Recognized Reviewers” to boost early traction. It begs the question: if you can afford to do the same, should you? Or are we just recreating the expensive “pay-to-play” launch strategies that plagued Amazon years ago?
  • TikTok Survives in Canada: Bucking the trend of Western bans, Canada announced it will allow TikTok to continue its operations in the country, keeping a vital marketing channel alive for North American DTC brands.
  • Europe is Buying Used: Re-used is back baby, at least in the EU. Back Market saw a 32% GMV increase in 2025, and Refurbed just crossed the massive €3 Billion GMV milestone, proving the circular economy is rapidly scaling outside the US.

Tech & Enterprise AI Updates

  • Anthropic’s New Angle: Remember last week when we talked about Anthropic and OpenAI with the Pentagon? Anthropic is now saying “hello world” with a whole new angle. They just launched the Claude Marketplace, giving enterprises direct access to tailored Claude models.
  • Internal Tech Rebellion: The military-AI drama isn’t over. Employees from OpenAI and Google DeepMind have officially filed an amicus brief in the ongoing Anthropic/DoD lawsuit, protesting the deployment of AI for lethal military use.
  • Stripe Monetizes AI: Stripe is rolling out new infrastructure designed to help developers turn their massive AI compute costs into profit centers via streamlined billing structures.
  • OpenAI Sued for Legal Advice: A landmark lawsuit was just filed against OpenAI for allowing ChatGPT to provide legal advice. If successful, this could be a huge game-changer for how all AI makers are forced to restrict their models’ outputs in regulated industries.

Stay nimble. See you all next week.

Notice: This information is intended to inform Hermeslines clients and partners about industry developments, including decisions of courts and administrative bodies. Nothing in this update should be construed as legal advice, a legal opinion, or customs consulting. Readers should not act upon the information contained in this alert without seeking the advice of a licensed customs broker or legal counsel. Views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of Hermeslines or its clients. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome. Hermeslines does not claim ownership of the original reporting; please refer to the linked sources for full articles and original attribution. This content is intended for commentary, news reporting, and educational purposes under the Fair Use provisions of Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976. This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute legal or customs advice.

References